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2021 Macro Economic Forecast

Updated: Jan 25



Each year the Anfield investment team undertakes a comprehensive economic forecast for the following calendar year. The process begins with a 2-day gathering of Anfield staff (this year via Zoom!) and select expert colleagues from other firms. The results of that 2-day gathering were previously circulated in the form of 2021 global themes and wild cards. The second part of this annual process is the derivation of specific macro-economic forecasts outlined below. From here, Anfield will develop capital market expectations and then reformulate investment strategies designed to capture the opportunities we see, and importantly to avoid or limit areas of risk going forward. We expect the entire process to be completed by mid-January and will circulate and implement our findings as soon as possible.


To summarize our 2021 macro-economic forecast, the team evaluated factors such as Fed Policy, # of Rate Hikes, US GDP, US Unemployment, and ECB Policy, amongst others. Broadly speaking, we see a world where central banks continue to be on hold from a policy perspective and economic growth is considerably stronger than in 2020, gaining momentum in 1H21 but strongest in 2H21 as the population becomes more vaccinated and life starts to resemble “normal” once again. This view is generally constructive for risk assets, in particular stocks. At the same time, debt markets will likely be challenged during the year. Further, high on the list of risks include the potential for further USD weakening and inflation regaining traction.




Anfield Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser with the SEC. This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities and may not be relied upon in connection with any offer or sale of securities. The contents of this report should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. The information and statistical data contained herein have been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable but in no way are warranted by us as to accuracy or completeness. The accompanying performance statistics are based upon historical performance and are not indicative of future performance. The types of investments discussed do not represent all the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for clients. You should not assume that investments in the securities or models identified and discussed were or will be profitable. Results of the models do not reflect the performance result of any one client. Not all clients have experienced this specific return level. Actual client returns may differ materially from the performance of the models due to actual fees incurred by clients, timing of cash flows, or client restrictions (e.g., restrictions on specific securities, industries, or types of securities). Clients who invested in the models after our initial trade date for any security may have experienced materially different performance and may have lost money.


While many of the thoughts expressed in this report are stated in a factual manner, the discussion reflects only Anfield Capital’s beliefs about the financial markets in which it invests portfolio assets following the models. The descriptions herein, are in summary form, are incomplete and do not include all the information necessary to evaluate an investment in any model. The models described represents current intentions. However, Anfield Capital may pursue any objectives, employ any techniques, or purchase any type of financial investment that it considers appropriate for the models and in the best interests of its clients.

Any prior investment results or returns are presented for illustrative purposes only and are not indicative of future returns. An investment in the models presented herein involves a high degree of risk and could result in the loss of your entire investment. Investments with Anfield are subject to significant risks, which include, but are not limited to, the risk of loss of principal, lack of diversification, volatility, and market disruptions. Prospective investors are referred to our Form ADV 2A for a more detailed discussion of risk factors, which can be (a) found on the SEC's Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website at: http://adviserinfo.sec.gov, or (b) provided upon request. You should not construe the contents of this report as legal, tax, investment, or other advice. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein by Anfield Capital, its employees and no liability is accepted by such persons for the accuracy of completeness of any such information or opinions. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply a certain level of skill or training and no inference to the contrary should be made.

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